Refined Lead Lacked Price Advantage, Weekly Trading Was Moderate, Lead Prices Held Up Well, Secondary Profits Continued to Improve [SMM Secondary Refined Lead Weekly Review]

SMM, September 19:

At this stage, spot supply of secondary refined lead is relatively limited, and some suppliers are holding back sales due to bullish sentiment. In east and north China, the mainstream ex-factory prices for secondary refined lead, including tax, were at a discount of 50-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, while in southwest and south China, discounts ranged from 170-50 yuan/mt. The mainstream ex-factory prices excluding tax were 15,750-15,850 yuan/mt. Downstream enterprises primarily purchased primary lead, with secondary refined lead as a supplement, and spot transactions were generally weak this week. In addition, primary lead smelters added maintenance, and spot orders were generally at a premium against the SMM #1 lead average price for self pick-up. Once the price spread widens, downstream purchasing preferences may partially shift back to the secondary market.

Downstream e-bike consumption improved MoM from August, and lead prices fluctuated upward; meanwhile, prices in the waste lead-acid battery market fell due to weak demand from secondary lead smelters' production halts. This led to a recovery in the loss range for secondary lead smelters, with most secondary lead smelting profits approaching the break-even line. As of September 19, 2025, the comprehensive theoretical profit/loss for large-scale secondary lead enterprises was 31 yuan/mt, while for small and medium-sized enterprises it was -181 yuan/mt. With the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays approaching, pre-holiday stockpiling demand from downstream battery producers pushed lead prices to fluctuate upward; meanwhile, expectations for secondary lead smelters to resume production are concentrated in early October, and secondary lead enterprises' smelting profits may continue to improve in late September.

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